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Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, is hosting the 29th session of the UN Global Conference on Climate Change (COP29) from November 11 to 22, 2024. Over 32,000 participants have already registered for the event. The Azerbaijani government views COP29 as an opportunity to showcase the nation as environmentally friendly and to advance its transition to green energy.

Despite the pressing environmental and green energy issues, international institutions and human rights organizations must direct their attention to the rapidly shrinking space for civil society and the escalating political repression in Azerbaijan.

The political assessment of the draft European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) country strategy for Azerbaijan 2024-2029 mentions international concerns regarding protecting human rights and fundamental freedoms, notably restrictions on freedom of assembly, association, and expression.[1]

Based on politically motivated arrests and repressions of independent media and civil society organizations, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe challenged[2] the credentials of the parliamentary delegation of Azerbaijan and was not ratified in January 2024.

Also, the European Parliament issued a critical resolution[3] denouncing Azerbaijan's violations of human rights and international law, stating that Azerbaijan’s abuses are incompatible with its hosting of COP29.

New wave of political repressions

The government of Azerbaijan started a new wave of repression after protests against the environmental impacts of a gold mining company. This occurred in the Soyudlu village of the Gadabay district of Azerbaijan on June 20-21, 2023. Since July 2023, dozens of journalists, civil society, and political activists have been imprisoned on suspicious charges.

The former member of parliament, Nazim Baydamirli, was the first person arrested on this list. He criticized the government for putting pressure on the village and blocking it because of the protests. Shortly afterwards, Gubad Ibadoghlu, a prominent economic scholar and professor, faced severe arrest. Only nine months later, he was moved to house arrest and still underlies a travel ban. Also, the investigative journalist Hafiz Babali, the prominent lawyer Alasgar Mamadli, election monitoring expert Anar Mamadli, the journalists Elnara Gasimova, Sevinj Abbasova, Nargiz Absalamova and Famil Khalilov are in this list of political prisoners.[4]

The report Quest for Justice in a Climate of Unprecedented Repression[5], published by the Anar Mammadli Campaign, very openly describes the human rights situation in Azerbaijan on the eve of COP29.

The former member of parliament, Nazim Baydamirli, was the first person arrested on this list. He criticized the government for putting pressure on the village and blocking it because of the protests. Shortly afterwards, Gubad Ibadoghlu, a prominent economic scholar and professor, faced severe arrest. Only nine months later, he was moved to house arrest and still underlies a travel ban. Also, the investigative journalist Hafiz Babali, the prominent lawyer Alasgar Mamadli, election monitoring expert Anar Mamadli, the journalists Elnara Gasimova, Sevinj Abbasova, Nargiz Absalamova and Famil Khalilov are in this list of political prisoners.

The foreword or the report by Oleksandra Matviichuk, Ukrainian human rights lawyer and head of the Nobel Peace Prize-awarded Center for Civil Liberties, compares the situation of the Ukrainian civil society, which is witnessing a horrible war, to the situation of Azerbaijan civil society, which is suffering because of repression.

The report highlights how the country's legal system has been weaponized against civil society over the last decade. By adopting reactionary laws and exerting political control over the judiciary, the government restricts freedom of association and expression, effectively paralyzing mechanisms for human rights protection.

The international community needs to hold the government of Azerbaijan accountable for climate change and human rights. COP29 can be a key moment for climate action and for pressing the government on freedoms. Many are hopeful that individuals arrested for political reasons can be released before or following COP29. However, scepticism persists among many observers, casting doubt on the likelihood of immediate change.

Unpretentious climate policy

The main goal of COP29 is to secure funding for developing countries' new ambitious climate commitments. The previous climate action target was to secure $100 billion in global climate actions. The New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG)[6] is a key element of the 2015 Paris Agreement, aimed at setting a new financial target to support developing countries in their climate actions post 2025. NCQG might change developing countries' climate policy priorities and related financial demands. But billions will not be enough for these ambitions now discussions are about trillions.

Oil-gas dependence

Issues like oil-gas revenues and subsidies will also be discussed. This is highly relevant for Azerbaijan, which depends entirely on fossil fuels. NCQG makes the fossil fuel industry and other significant polluters pay. According to official statistics, the oil-gas share of Azerbaijan's GDP was 36.86%, 51.53% in state budget revenues, and 90.12% in exports in 2023[7]. But, year by year, the country's crude oil production is decreasing, and natural gas production is almost at its peak.

The government of Azerbaijan ratified the Paris Agreement in 2017 and committed to reducing GHG emissions by 35%[8] by 2030 compared to 1990. But from 1990 to 1997, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Azerbaijan decreased by 53% only because of the collapse of the former soviet industry and later slightly started to increase. In other words, when the country signed the Paris Agreement, the commitment was very close to being already fulfilled: GHG emissions in 2017 were 31.4% lower than in 1990. After 2017, GHG emissions in the country have not increased. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan committed to reducing climate emissions by 40% by 2050. Nevertheless, environmental experts think the government should take on more ambitious responsibilities and apply a net zero carbon[9] policy by 2050.

Investment desire for renewable energy

Another promise by the Azerbaijani government is to increase renewable power capacity by 30% by 2030. The time is short, and the goal may not be achievable. However, the government demonstrates efforts and intensively seeks investment in this field. From January to September 2024, the renewable energy capacity share increased to 14.1%. The Garadagh Solar Power Plant will be the first sizeable green energy project, and foreign investment will be involved. The United Arab Emirates-based Masdar renewable energy company is to invest $262 million in the Gardagh SPP[10], which is going to have 230 MW capacity. Many other renewable energy projects are in the making. The government has deals with BP and Chinese investors and intends to involve TotalEnergies from France.

However, to realize these and other projects, Azerbaijan abuses International Financial Institutions (IFI) for its financial needs, avoiding transparency and human rights commitments. It plans to take large loans from the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).

The World Bank is going to accept a new loan in the amount of $294.50 million for the Scaling-Up Renewable Energy Project of state-owned Azerenerji OJSC in January 2025[11]. The ADB plans to finance solar energy projects in the southern districts of Azerbaijan.[12]

These are realistic, even though the government of Azerbaijan doesn’t implement a sustainable economic policy and has many problems related to transparency and anti-corruption. Azerbaijan ranks 154th out of 180 countries in the Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index 2023, scoring 23 out of 100[13]. The country is also not a part of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative and Open Government Partnership. According to the UNCTAD World Investment Report[14], foreign direct investment inflows to Azerbaijan are becoming increasingly negative since 2021. It demonstrates that also investors don't trust the country's judiciary system, in which the rule of law is one of the top concerns.

This article was also published on the Friedrich Naumann Foundation website.

© 2024 All Rights Reserved. Open Azerbaijan.

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